Welsh Labour Faces High-Stakes Three-Way Selection Battle in Afan Ogwr Rhondda
Key Political Figures Clash for Constituency Spots
Welsh Labour is bracing for significant changes ahead of next year’s Senedd election, with a high-profile three-way selection battle emerging in the newly formed Afan Ogwr Rhondda constituency. The contest pits Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies against Rhondda MS Buffy Williams and Deputy Presiding Officer David Rees in a crucial party ballot.
The Contenders:
- Huw Irranca-Davies: Current Deputy First Minister and Rural Affairs Minister
- Buffy Williams: Gained national attention by reclaiming Rhondda from Plaid Cymru in 2021
- David Rees: Aberavon MS and Deputy Presiding Officer since 2019
Welsh Labour’s Electoral Challenges
The selection battle comes amid broader concerns for Welsh Labour, with:
- Over one-third of current Labour MSs not seeking re-election
- Former First Ministers Mark Drakeford and Vaughan Gething stepping down
- Recent polls showing Labour trailing Plaid Cymru and Reform UK
Electoral Math in Afan Ogwr Rhondda:
- New constituency merges Aberavon, Ogmore, and Rhondda areas
- Six seats available through proportional representation
- Labour typically expects two seats, but securing a third requires ≈36% of votes
Political Implications of the Selection Battle
Party insiders suggest significant stakes in the outcome:
- Williams’ 2021 victory over Plaid’s Leanne Wood (19% swing) made her a rising star
- Irranca-Davies brings Westminster experience and current ministerial clout
- Rees offers institutional knowledge as Deputy Presiding Officer
“These are not normal circumstances,” noted a Labour source, highlighting concerns about voter defections to both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
The Selection Process Timeline
- Local party members will rank candidates for the constituency list
- Results expected within weeks
- Final list determines election priority under PR system
Background on the New Electoral Landscape
- 16 new constituencies created for 2026 Senedd election
- Each party can nominate up to 8 candidates per constituency
- Seats allocated based on percentage of vote share
Constituency Dynamics:
- Afan Ogwr Rhondda includes Port Talbot steelworks (Rees’ current constituency)
- Irranca-Davies has worked to address farmer concerns in rural areas
- Williams remains popular in Rhondda after BEM honor for community work
Looking Ahead
The selection outcome could significantly impact:
- Welsh Labour’s ability to retain traditional strongholds
- The party’s gender balance in candidate selection
- Strategic positioning against growing Plaid Cymru and Reform UK support
With Welsh Labour declining to comment on internal selections, all eyes remain on this high-stakes political showdown that may reshape Wales’ political landscape.
